Monday 15 / June / 2026
The ink is barely dry on the printed pages of the memorandum of understanding which will be signed in Switzerland on Friday, yet the global celebration of an end to the United States-Iran war is wildly premature.
US President Donald Trump is busy taking a victory lap, ordering the removal of the naval blockade and declaring the Strait of Hormuz open for business.
But beneath the ‘peacemaker’ headlines lies a fragile facade. History has shown us this exact script before, and we know how it ends. This deal is not a blueprint for permanent peace; it is a dangerous intermission. Trust does not exist between Washington and Tehran. Lest we forget, it was Trump himself who unilaterally tore up the 2015 JCPOA nuclear deal in 2018 under his “Maximum Pressure” campaign. To believe he won’t shatter this agreement the moment the grueling, 60-day technical nuclear talks face a hurdle is willful blindness.
More importantly, the deal ignores the most volatile variable in the region: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Sidelined during negotiations, Israel has made its dissatisfaction clear, launching devastating airstrikes on Beirut even as the agreement was being finalised. Netanyahu’s primary strategic objectives—maintaining an iron grip on occupied lands and permanently neutralising regional fronts in Lebanon—are directly undermined by a permanent ceasefire.
Back in Washington, the political trap is already being set. Powerful lobbying forces like AIPAC, alongside Congressional defence hawks, are gearing up to frame the phased release of $25 billion in frozen assets as “appeasement.”
Trump thrives on transactional, short-term optics. However, when the initial praise fades and intense domestic lobbying pressure collides with Israel’s determination to retain total military freedom of action, this deal will not hold. Expect this promise to be broken like all the others—leaving the region right back on the brink of total war.
